Where to Cut
Human brains are extremely good at turning observations into stories.
Usually, that is useful.
Sometimes the story gets stapled to the observation so quickly that we forget there were ever two pieces.
A cut by evidence pulls them apart.
Ask:
What actually happened?
Then:
What did I add?
Example: Dating
“They’re losing interest in me.”
Maybe.
What actually happened?
Perhaps:
they took much longer than usual to reply;
their messages got shorter;
they declined two invitations;
they stopped initiating conversations.
Those observations may genuinely support the idea that their interest is fading.
But:
They replied less often
and
They no longer want me
are not the same statement.
Keeping the seam visible gives you room to notice other explanations, gather more information, and update without pretending you know nothing.
The goal is not to become incapable of inference.
The goal is to know when you are making one.
Example: Technology
“The system is unsafe.”
What happened?
Maybe the system produced a dangerous answer during a test.
That is evidence.
But several different claims might be built from it:
the system can produce dangerous outputs;
the safeguards failed under these conditions;
the system is broadly unsafe;
the same failure will happen reliably;
the underlying safety approach does not work.
Those claims require different amounts of evidence.
One observation can matter enormously without proving every larger conclusion someone might attach to it.
Example: The Car
“The battery is dead.”
Maybe.
But what did you actually observe?
The car would not start.
A dead battery is one explanation.
So are several other things you would rather discover before buying a new battery and carrying it through a parking lot.
The distinction is tiny:
Observation: The car will not start.
Inference: The battery is dead.
But that tiny seam can save you a lot of stupid.
When to Try This Cut
Use an evidence cut when:
you feel very certain about what an event means;
two people agree on what happened but disagree about why;
you are making a large judgment from a small number of observations;
your next action depends heavily on your interpretation being right.
Ask:
What happened? What did I add?
You are allowed to make inferences.
Just don’t hide the stitching.
FOLLOW THE WIRES