Two Different Jobs

You are examining a claim.

Something happens.

You notice a fact.

Now ask:

What job does this information actually do?

Some information bears directly on the claim you are evaluating.

That is a pointer.

Other information tells you something about the conditions around the reasoning.

That is an indicator.

The distinction is simple.

It is also extremely easy to fuck up.

Pointers

A pointer bears on the proposition itself.

Suppose the claim is:

“Jordan was at the meeting.”

Several independent, knowledgeable witnesses say they saw Jordan there.

That points toward the claim.

Timestamped footage places Jordan across town at the same time.

That points away from the claim.

Neither fact magically settles the case by itself.

But both legitimately affect how plausible the claim is.

They point at the thing you are trying to determine.

Indicators

Now suppose you learn:

The person evaluating the evidence desperately wants Jordan to have been at the meeting.

That matters.

But it does a different job.

It may indicate:

Motivated reasoning could be a risk here.

Check the analysis more carefully.

The person's desire does not itself put Jordan in the room.

It tells you something about the reasoning conditions.

That is an indicator.

An Indicator Is Not Fake Evidence

This distinction is not:

Pointer = real evidence.
Indicator = irrelevant trivia.
Indicators can matter a lot.
Financial incentive.
Emotional investment.
Social pressure.
Fatigue.
Conflict of interest.
An old memory.
A source with a bad track record.

Any of those may tell you:

Look harder here.

They can change how much scrutiny you apply.

They can change how much confidence you place in a process or source.

They just do not automatically answer the external question.

Keep the Arrow Aimed at the Right Target

A useful habit is to finish this sentence:

This information bears on...

Not vaguely.

Specifically.

Does it bear on whether the event happened?

Whether the source is reliable?

Whether your reasoning may be biased?

Whether the memory is likely to be accurate?

Whether more checking is needed?

Those are different destinations.

Do not let a fact vote in an election it was never registered for.

The Short Version

A pointer bears on the proposition.

An indicator bears on the conditions around evaluating it.

Sometimes the same fact can do different jobs depending on the question.

We will get to that.

For now, when a piece of information appears, ask:

What does this actually point to?